An ice-core based history of Siberian forest fires since AD 1250     

Anja Eichler  Willy Tinner  Sabina Brütsch  Susanne Olivier  Tatyana Papina  Margit Schwikowski 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(9-10):1027-1034

Forest fires play a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus, can affect regional and global climate. Although fires in extended areas of Russian boreal forests have a considerable influence on atmospheric greenhouse gas and soot concentrations, estimates of their impact on climate are hampered by a lack of data on the history of forest fires. Especially regions with strong continental climate are of high importance due to an intensified development of wildfires. In this study we reconstruct the fire history of Southern Siberia during the past 750 years using ice-core based nitrate, potassium, and charcoal concentration records from Belukha glacier in the continental Siberian Altai. A period of exceptionally high forest-fire activity was observed between AD 1600 and 1680, following an extremely dry period AD 1540–1600. Ice-core pollen data suggest distinct forest diebacks and the expansion of steppe in response to dry climatic conditions. Coherence with a paleoenvironmental record from the 200 km distant Siberian lake Teletskoye shows that the vegetational shift AD 1540–1680, the increase in fire activity AD 1600–1680, and the subsequent recovery of forests AD 1700 were of regional significance. Dead biomass accumulation in response to drought and high temperatures around AD 1600 probably triggered maximum forest-fire activity AD 1600–1680. The extreme dry period in the 16th century was also observed at other sites in Central Asia and is possibly associated with a persistent positive mode of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No significant increase in biomass burning occurred in the Altai region during the last 300 years, despite strongly increasing temperatures and human activities. Our results imply that precipitation changes controlled fire-regime and vegetation shifts in the Altai region during the past 750 years. We conclude that high sensitivity of ecosystems to occasional decadal-scale drought events may trigger unprecedented environmental reorganizations under global-warming conditions.  相似文献   

The MEMIN research unit: Scaling impact cratering experiments in porous sandstones     

Michael H. POELCHAU  Thomas KENKMANN  Klaus THOMA  Tobias HOERTH  Anja DUFRESNE  Frank SCHÄFER 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2013,48(1):8-22

Abstract– The MEMIN research unit (Multidisciplinary Experimental and Modeling Impact research Network) is focused on analyzing experimental impact craters and experimental cratering processes in geological materials. MEMIN is interested in understanding how porosity and pore space saturation influence the cratering process. Here, we present results of a series of impact experiments into porous wet and dry sandstone targets. Steel, iron meteorite, and aluminum projectiles ranging in size from 2.5 to 12 mm were accelerated to velocities of 2.5–7.8 km s^?1, yielding craters with diameters between 3.9 and 40 cm. Results show that the target’s porosity reduces crater volumes and cratering efficiency relative to nonporous rocks. Saturation of pore space with water to 50% and 90% increasingly counteracts the effects of porosity, leading to larger but flatter craters. Spallation becomes more dominant in larger‐scale experiments and leads to an increase in cratering efficiency with increasing projectile size for constant impact velocities. The volume of spalled material is estimated using parabolic fits to the crater morphology, yielding approximations of the transient crater volume. For impacts at the same velocity these transient craters show a constant cratering efficiency that is not affected by projectile size.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Regional hydrological cycle changes in response to an ambitious mitigation scenario     

H. Huebener  M. G. Sanderson  I. Höschel  J. Körper  T. C. Johns  J.-F. Royer  E. Roeckner  E. Manzini  J.-L. Dufresne  O. H. Otterå  J. Tjiputra  D. Salas y Melia  M. Giorgetta  S. Denvil  P. G. Fogli 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):961-963

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On the interpretation of inter-model spread in CMIP5 climate sensitivity estimates   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jessica Vial  Jean-Louis Dufresne  Sandrine Bony 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):3339-3362

This study diagnoses the climate sensitivity, radiative forcing and climate feedback estimates from eleven general circulation models participating in the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and analyzes inter-model differences. This is done by taking into account the fact that the climate response to increased carbon dioxide (CO₂) is not necessarily only mediated by surface temperature changes, but can also result from fast land warming and tropospheric adjustments to the CO₂ radiative forcing. By considering tropospheric adjustments to CO₂ as part of the forcing rather than as feedbacks, and by using the radiative kernels approach, we decompose climate sensitivity estimates in terms of feedbacks and adjustments associated with water vapor, temperature lapse rate, surface albedo and clouds. Cloud adjustment to CO₂ is, with one exception, generally positive, and is associated with a reduced strength of the cloud feedback; the multi-model mean cloud feedback is about 33 % weaker. Non-cloud adjustments associated with temperature, water vapor and albedo seem, however, to be better understood as responses to land surface warming. Separating out the tropospheric adjustments does not significantly affect the spread in climate sensitivity estimates, which primarily results from differing climate feedbacks. About 70 % of the spread stems from the cloud feedback, which remains the major source of inter-model spread in climate sensitivity, with a large contribution from the tropics. Differences in tropical cloud feedbacks between low-sensitivity and high-sensitivity models occur over a large range of dynamical regimes, but primarily arise from the regimes associated with a predominance of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus clouds. The combined water vapor plus lapse rate feedback also contributes to the spread of climate sensitivity estimates, with inter-model differences arising primarily from the relative humidity responses throughout the troposphere. Finally, this study points to a substantial role of nonlinearities in the calculation of adjustments and feedbacks for the interpretation of inter-model spread in climate sensitivity estimates. We show that in climate model simulations with large forcing (e.g., 4 × CO₂), nonlinearities cannot be assumed minor nor neglected. Having said that, most results presented here are consistent with a number of previous feedback studies, despite the very different nature of the methodologies and all the uncertainties associated with them.  相似文献   

LMDZ5B: the atmospheric component of the IPSL climate model with revisited parameterizations for clouds and convection     

Frédéric Hourdin  Jean-Yves Grandpeix  Catherine Rio  Sandrine Bony  Arnaud Jam  Frédérique Cheruy  Nicolas Rochetin  Laurent Fairhead  Abderrahmane Idelkadi  Ionela Musat  Jean-Louis Dufresne  Alain Lahellec  Marie-Pierre Lefebvre  Romain Roehrig 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(9-10):2193-2222

Based on a decade of research on cloud processes, a new version of the LMDZ atmospheric general circulation model has been developed that corresponds to a complete recasting of the parameterization of turbulence, convection and clouds. This LMDZ5B version includes a mass-flux representation of the thermal plumes or rolls of the convective boundary layer, coupled to a bi-Gaussian statistical cloud scheme, as well as a parameterization of the cold pools generated below cumulonimbus by re-evaporation of convective precipitation. The triggering and closure of deep convection are now controlled by lifting processes in the sub-cloud layer. An available lifting energy and lifting power are provided both by the thermal plumes and by the spread of cold pools. The individual parameterizations were carefully validated against the results of explicit high resolution simulations. Here we present the work done to go from those new concepts and developments to a full 3D atmospheric model, used in particular for climate change projections with the IPSL-CM5B coupled model. Based on a series of sensitivity experiments, we document the differences with the previous LMDZ5A version distinguishing the role of parameterization changes from that of model tuning. Improvements found previously in single-column simulations of case studies are confirmed in the 3D model: (1) the convective boundary layer and cumulus clouds are better represented and (2) the diurnal cycle of convective rainfall over continents is delayed by several hours, solving a longstanding problem in climate modeling. The variability of tropical rainfall is also larger in LMDZ5B at intraseasonal time-scales. Significant biases of the LMDZ5A model however remain, or are even sometimes amplified. The paper emphasizes the importance of parameterization improvements and model tuning in the frame of climate change studies as well as the new paradigm that represents the improvement of 3D climate models under the control of single-column case studies simulations.  相似文献   

Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Sophie Szopa  Y. Balkanski  M. Schulz  S. Bekki  D. Cugnet  A. Fortems-Cheiney  S. Turquety  A. Cozic  C. Déandreis  D. Hauglustaine  A. Idelkadi  J. Lathière  F. Lefevre  M. Marchand  R. Vuolo  N. Yan  J.-L. Dufresne 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(9-10):2223-2250

Global aerosol and ozone distributions and their associated radiative forcings were simulated between 1850 and 2100 following a recent historical emission dataset and under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) for the future. These simulations were used in an Earth System Model to account for the changes in both radiatively and chemically active compounds, when simulating the climate evolution. The past negative stratospheric ozone trends result in a negative climate forcing culminating at ?0.15 W m^?2 in the 1990s. In the meantime, the tropospheric ozone burden increase generates a positive climate forcing peaking at 0.41 W m^?2. The future evolution of ozone strongly depends on the RCP scenario considered. In RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, the evolution of both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone generate relatively weak radiative forcing changes until 2060–2070 followed by a relative 30 % decrease in radiative forcing by 2100. In contrast, RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 model projections exhibit strongly different ozone radiative forcing trajectories. In the RCP2.6 scenario, both effects (stratospheric ozone, a negative forcing, and tropospheric ozone, a positive forcing) decline towards 1950s values while they both get stronger in the RCP8.5 scenario. Over the twentieth century, the evolution of the total aerosol burden is characterized by a strong increase after World War II until the middle of the 1980s followed by a stabilization during the last decade due to the strong decrease in sulfates in OECD countries since the 1970s. The cooling effects reach their maximal values in 1980, with ?0.34 and ?0.28 W m^?2 respectively for direct and indirect total radiative forcings. According to the RCP scenarios, the aerosol content, after peaking around 2010, is projected to decline strongly and monotonically during the twenty-first century for the RCP8.5, 4.5 and 2.6 scenarios. While for RCP6.0 the decline occurs later, after peaking around 2050. As a consequence the relative importance of the total cooling effect of aerosols becomes weaker throughout the twenty-first century compared with the positive forcing of greenhouse gases. Nevertheless, both surface ozone and aerosol content show very different regional features depending on the future scenario considered. Hence, in 2050, surface ozone changes vary between ?12 and +12 ppbv over Asia depending on the RCP projection, whereas the regional direct aerosol radiative forcing can locally exceed ?3 W m^?2.  相似文献   

Mass-cargo-affine industries and climate change     

Anja Scholten  Benno Rothstein  Roland Baumhauer 《Climatic change》2014,122(1-2):111-125

The impact of low water periods on inland navigation and companies is well known by ship-operators and companies that rely on this mode of transport but it is rarely a topic of climate impact research. As climate change might affect the frequency and intensity of low water periods, quantifying the impact of climate change on companies and the effects of possible adaptation measures is vital. In this study, we present a model for quantifying the impact of low water events on companies which rely on inland navigation and apply that model to three anonymous iron and steel companies along the River Rhine. The deviation of optimal storage, the storage level that evens out risk vs. fixed capital, is used in the model to measure the vulnerability of companies. The results show that, depending on the climate scenario, the companies might have to deal with either one or five additional days of empty storage in the near future (2021–2050) and up to nine more days by the 2071–2100 period. Seasonal analysis shows that, consistent with the change in the river discharge, the biggest deviations from optimal storage level occur in the late summer/early autumn. Analysis of adaptation options shows that companies would need to increase storage capacity by 2.5 % for the 2021–2050 period, and by 25 % by the 2071–2100 period. A reduction of ship sizes is not an adaptation option for the three companies in this study, because these companies already use relatively small vessels. This is however an efficient adaptation option for companies which employ larger vessels for transport. Another adaptation option would be to reduce the share of transportation via inland waters, but the feasibility of this option depends on the availability and cost of other modes of transport.  相似文献   

Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating of sand‐filled wedge structures and their fine‐grained host sediment from Jonzac,SW France     

Anja Guhl  Pascal Bertran  Christoph Zielhofer  Kathryn E. Fitzsimmons 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2013,42(2):317-332

Two sand wedge structures and their host sediments, from Jonzac in SW France, were successfully dated using Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) measurements on both small aliquots and single grains of quartz from the 180–212 μm size fraction. One of the sand wedges clearly contains primary infilling. However, grain‐size analysis and field observations do not clearly indicate whether the other feature represents a primary sand wedge or a composite sand wedge with primary and secondary infilling. OSL results and the geological setting justify using the Central Age Model (CAM) for the calculation of age estimates. Grain‐size analysis and detailed investigations of OSL results revealed the contamination of one sand wedge sample with host sediment. However, age calculation using the Finite Mixture Model (FMM) provided what is considered to be a reliable age estimate for the contaminated sample. The age estimates for all samples correspond to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3. While fine‐grained sediments were deposited in the middle of MIS 3 (c. 43–55 ka), the sand wedges unexpectedly correspond to the end of this period (c. 33 ka) or the onset of MIS 2 (c. 27 ka). The sand wedges were probably formed during intense but short cold periods, possibly correlated with a Heinrich event (H2 and/or H3). The results help us to assess how effective luminescence dating is on sand wedges and the limitations involved in correlating sand wedge ages with Heinrich events, and contribute to the debate on the timing of cryogenic formation processes and the permafrost distribution in SW France.  相似文献   

Holocene and Pleistocene fringing reef growth and the role of accommodation space and exposure to waves and currents (Bora Bora,Society Islands,French Polynesia)     

Eberhard Gischler  J. Harold Hudson  Marc Humblet  Juan Carlos Braga  Dominik Schmitt  Anja Isaack  Anton Eisenhauer  Gilbert F. Camoin 《Sedimentology》2019,66(1):305-328

Holocene fringing reef development around Bora Bora is controlled by variations in accommodation space (as a function of sea‐level and antecedent topography) and exposure to waves and currents. Subsidence ranged from 0 to 0·11 m kyr^?1, and did not create significant accommodation space. A windward fringing reef started to grow 8·7 kyr bp , retrograded towards the coast over a Pleistocene fringing reef until ca 6·0 kyr bp , and then prograded towards the lagoon after sea‐level had reached its present level. The retrograding portion of the reef is dominated by corals, calcareous algae and microbialite frameworks; the prograding portion is largely detrital. The reef is up to 13·5 m thick and accreted vertically with an average rate of 3·12 m kyr^?1. Lateral growth amounts to 13·3 m kyr^?1. Reef corals are dominated by an inner Pocillopora assemblage and an outer Acropora assemblage. Both assemblages comprise thick crusts of coralline algae. Palaeobathymetry suggests deposition in 0 to 10 m depth. An underlying Pleistocene fringing reef formed during the sea‐level highstand of Marine Isotope Stage 5e, and is also characterized by the occurrence of corals, coralline algal crusts and microbialites. A previously investigated, leeward fringing reef started to form contemporaneously (8·78 kyr bp ), but is thicker (up to 20 m) and solely prograded throughout the Holocene. A shallow Pocillopora assemblage and a deeper water Montipora assemblage were identified, but detrital facies dominate. At the Holocene reef base, only basalt was recovered. The Holocene windward–leeward differences are a consequence of less accommodation space on the eastern island side that eventually led to a more complex reef architecture. As a result of higher rates of exposure and flushing, the reef framework on the windward island side is more abundant and experienced stronger cementation. In the Pleistocene, the environmental conditions on the leeward island side were presumably unfavourable for fringing reef growth.  相似文献   

Hydrogeochemical and multi-tracer investigations of arsenic-affected aquifers in semi-arid West Africa     

Anja Bretzler  Lucien Stolze  Julien Nikiema  Franck Lalanne  Elaheh Ghadiri  Matthias S.Brennwald  Massimo Rolle  Mario Schirmer 《地学前缘(英文版)》2019,10(5):1685-1699

The semi-arid Sahel regions of West Africa rely heavily on groundwater from shallow to moderately deep(100 m b.g.l.)crystalline bedrock aquifers for drinking water production.Groundwater quality may be affected by high geogenic arsenic(As)concentrations(10μg/L)stemming from the oxidation of sulphide minerals(pyrite,arsenopyrite)in mineralised zones.These aquifers are still little investigated,especially concerning groundwater residence times and the influence of the annual monsoon season on groundwater chemistry.To gain insights on the temporal aspects of As contamination,we have used isotope tracers(noble gases,~3H,stable water isotopes(~2 H,~(18)O))and performed hydrochemical analyses on groundwater abstracted from tube wells and dug wells in a small study area in southwestern Burkina Faso.Results revealed a great variability in groundwater properties(e.g.redox conditions,As concentrations,water level,residence time)over spatial scales of only a few hundred metres,characteristic of the highly heterogeneous fractured underground.Elevated As levels are found in oxic groundwater of circum-neutral pH and show little relation with any of the measured parameters.Arsenic concentrations are relatively stable over the course of the year,with little effect seen by the monsoon.Groundwater residence time does not seem to have an influence on As concentrations,as elevated As can be found both in groundwater with short(50 a)and long(10~3 a)residence times as indicated by ~3He/~4He ratios spanning three orders of magnitude.These results support the hypothesis that the proximity to mineralised zones is the most crucial factor controlling As concentrations in the observed redox/pH conditions.The existence of very old water portions with residence times10~3 years already at depths of50 m b.g.l.is a new finding for the shallow fractured bedrock aquifers of Burkina Faso,suggesting that overexploitation of these relatively low-yielding aquifers may be an issue in the future.  相似文献